Bitcoin correction may be nearing an end with 8 of 12 capitulation signals flashing, VanEck says

Bitcoin could be approaching the end of an almost 11-month correction and entering an accumulation phase, according to VanEck.

The asset manager's researchers, including Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel, found that eight of 12 signals in its "Bitcoin Capitulation Check" are currently flashing, adding that all 12 signals have dropped into their capitulation zone at some point over the past three months. 

The researchers wrote that the readings suggest the market has witnessed "what appears to be bitcoin price capitulation" and is "nearing or currently in an accumulation phase."

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $64,700 on Tuesday and has remained range-bound between roughly $58,000 and $66,500 since the beginning of June. The top cryptocurrency remains about 48% below its all-time high of around $126,300 set in October 2025.

This has also coincided with renewed demand for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. The funds recorded just under $300 million in net inflows on Monday, their strongest single day since May 5.

VanEck noted that the three previous bitcoin bear market phases have taken an average of 12.7 months from peak to max drawdown. Bitcoin is now roughly in its 11th month from its early October peak, putting a potential transition to accumulation in September through November based on historical cycles.

However, VanEck warned against treating these capitulation signals as surefire short-term signals to buy, noting that similar periods of eight to 12 indicators firing produced average 90-day and 180-day returns below the baseline.

"We expect a shallower trough this cycle," VanEck said, pointing to spot bitcoin exchange-traded products, a larger institutional holder base and the absence of widespread crypto lender and exchange failures like FTX, Celsius and Terra Luna that amplified previous downturns.

Meanwhile, the amount of bitcoin held for more than a year fell by roughly 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days to 11.84 million BTC, bringing long-term holders' share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months.