Why Can't Bitcoin Hold $80,000 When Sellers Have Given Up?
Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $78,257 after slipping back below $80,000, the level analysts say must break before liquidity returns. On-chain data show easing selling pressure, yet fresh spot buyers have not arrived.
Easing selling pressure has carried the move further than fresh buying has. Futures traders have led the rebound, while spot flows stay neutral.
Selling Pressure Fades as Holders Stop Realizing Losses
Holders have largely stopped selling at a loss, with Net Realized Profit and Loss back in positive territory and Long-Term Holder SOPR at 1.2.
XWIN Japan added that accumulation addresses control roughly 2.3 million BTC. Depositors have also shown little urgency to move coins onto exchanges as Bitcoin approached $80,000.
Moreover, hedge funds have read it the same way and trimmed short exposure. Macro pressure then tested that base.
August payrolls printed at 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, pushing September rate-hike odds near 60%.
According to Wintermute, Bitcoin still closed the week 3.45% higher, even as a hawkish repricing usually drags crypto down alongside equities.
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Bitcoin Spot Demand and Exchange Liquidity Stay Thin
Despite the recovery, spot demand has yet to provide the same confirmation. The 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for spot markets remains neutral. Futures buyers, by contrast, have taken the lead during the rebound, analyst Darkfost said.
Liquidity conditions also remain mixed. Binance stablecoin reserves peaked above $50 billion this cycle before falling by nearly $7 billion. The past month, however, brought $1.6 billion back into reserves.
The 90-day change in Binance’s stablecoin market cap has also improved. It recovered to -1.6% from -17%. Darkfost views the recovery as genuine but too slow to support the move on its own.
“While this is a positive development in the short term, it’s still sluggish and needs more strength behind it to be considered truly meaningful,” the analyst said.
Institutional demand provides a stronger source of support. US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted $986.9 million in the week ended September 4.
That extended the ETF market’s inflow streak to three weeks, bringing the total inflows during this time to roughly $3.8 billion.
Still, ETF demand does not necessarily translate into immediate buying across open spot markets. A negative Coinbase Premium and elevated whale deposit ratios remain warning signs.
XWIN Japan, therefore, sees a sustained break above $80,000, combined with stronger spot demand, as the clearest confirmation of a bullish shift.
“A clean break above the $80 000 level should be the key to fully opening the door for liquidity to return for good,” Darkfost added.
The next tests are already approaching. US CPI data is due September 11, followed by the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 meeting. Both prints will test whether sellers stay away.
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