Why Bitcoin Could Target $96.7K as On-Chain Money, Not Leverage, Leads the Rally
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around the $85,000 sell wall as leverage cools and new on-chain money arrives, according to Glassnode. That mix could put $96.7K in play.
The same report shows profit-taking running well above its normal range. Here is what each signal measures and what it implies for the path to $96.7K.
Why Did the $85K Bitcoin Sell Wall Matter?
A sell wall is a cluster of resting sell orders in one price zone. Buyers must absorb all of it before price can climb through.
Glassnode flagged one at $85,000 to $85,500 in its latest report. ETF inflows had faded and trading volume was low.
bitcoin:native trades near $86k after a Sunday rally lifted the weekly close about 2% higher. Derivatives positioning eased back into its normal range and ETF inflows cooled, while on-chain activity, new capital and profit-taking all run hot.https://t.co/cNfJRo49ej pic.twitter.com/b1tB2JT0lu
— glassnode (@glassnode) October 5, 2026
A week earlier, Glassnode named the next major resistance near $96.7K, the mean Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) price.
MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market cap with the value of coins at the price they last moved. It works as a gauge of holders’ standing against their cost basis.
A Sunday rally on Oct. 4 lifted the weekly close about 2% above the previous one. Bitcoin price action in Glassnode’s Monday update sits above that zone.
Is Leverage Really Taking a Back Seat?
Open interest measures the total value of outstanding derivatives contracts. When it climbs fast, traders are borrowing more to bet on price moves.
Futures open interest slipped back inside its range, near the upper edge, Glassnode found. Options open interest dropped after the quarterly expiry.
Perpetual futures are contracts with no expiry date. Selling pressure in them eased after the dip a week earlier.
However, Glassnode’s off-chain summary still rates futures as moderate and rising. Leverage has cooled rather than disappeared.
Who Is Buying If ETF Demand Has Cooled?
Spot takers, traders who buy at the market price, ended the week as net buyers. Momentum eased back inside its range.
ETF demand cooled after the prior week’s surge. Weekly netflow stayed positive but far smaller, and trading volume sat near its low band.
Meanwhile, on-chain readings are stronger. Active addresses, fees and transfer volume all rose above their high bands.
Realized cap values every coin at the price it last moved. Its monthly change stayed far above its band.
The hot capital share, which covers realized cap held in recently moved coins, rose further above its own band. Blockchain data firm Santiment separately tracked wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC accumulating Bitcoin since July.
| Signal | What it measures | Week 41 reading |
|---|---|---|
| Futures open interest | Value of outstanding futures contracts | Back inside range, near upper edge |
| Options open interest | Value of outstanding options contracts | Dropped after quarterly expiry |
| ETF netflow | Weekly coins entering or leaving funds | Positive but far smaller |
| Realized cap, monthly change | Change in coins valued at last-moved prices | Far above its band |
| Short-term holder unrealized gains | Paper profit of recent buyers | Well above high band |
| ETF MVRV | Fund holders’ profit versus cost | Above high band |
Can Buyers Already in Profit Carry Bitcoin to $96.7K?
Close to three quarters of supply is in profit. Glassnode described profit-taking as light on Sept. 30.
In contrast, short-term holder unrealized gains and realized profit-taking now sit well above their high bands. Glassnode counts coins younger than 155 days as short-term holdings.
Short-term holder supply also rose relative to long-term holder supply, reaching the upper part of its range.
ETF holders carry the same exposure. ETF MVRV moved above its high band, which means the average fund holder’s profit exceeds its normal range.
If recent buyers keep holding, the move toward $96.7K would rest on demand rather than borrowed money. If they sell into resistance, profit-taking could turn that same demand into supply.