Suspicious prediction market activity seen before election poll release: NYT

Suspicious prediction market bets were placed shortly before two recent New York Times/Siena political polls were released to the public, according to a report.

Vanderbilt University researchers said a Polymarket user bet almost $200,000 on Oct. 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would be re-elected. An hour later, a Times/Siena poll was released showing Ricketts in the lead.

A Friday New York Times report said while it was not clear if the user had access to inside information, they won more than $77,000.

The user also placed similar large bets on other markets, including Kalshi, the report said.

“There’s a series of circumstances here that it’s hard to write it off as a random occurrence,” said Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security. It “requires further investigation.”

Polymarket said it had spotted the trades and was investigating. Kalshi declined comment.

Cointelegraph reported in April that a US Army soldier had been charged after making more than $400,000 by betting on a prediction market allegedly using nonpublic information tied to a US operation involving then Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

In a statement, the Department of Justice alleged that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to the capture of Maduro at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January. 

Van Dyke allegedly used this information to buy “yes” shares in related Polymarket contracts, including “Maduro out by January 31” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31,” according to the DOJ. 

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