Morning Minute: Robinhood CEO Bets Crypto Will Beat Sports at Prediction Markets
Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our daily news show 'FOMO HOUR' covering all of the top stories and market action.
GM!
Today’s top news:
- Crypto majors grind higher as BTC hits $86k
- BTC ETFs see monster $999M in inflows, most since Oct 2026
- Tokenized stock venues may be able to apply as soon as Q4
- X shares new promo video for Cashtag Program allowing trading from the timeline
- Onchain protocols see big revenue day, though onchain leaders cool off
→🎲 Robinhood CEO Bets Crypto Will Beat Sports at Prediction Markets
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev told Jim Cramer on Mad Money that crypto contracts are already taking a disproportionate share of Robinhood’s prediction markets business, and that within a few years “sports will actually be in the minority.” He called sports a wedge for bringing in liquidity and users, and said the industry is expanding far beyond it.
Robinhood’s event-contract revenue jumped more than tenfold year over year to $156 million in the second quarter, making it the company’s fastest-growing business line. Contracts traded 4.7 billion times in August, roughly 15 times the year-earlier volume. Over the same stretch, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue fell.
The business sits on three legs now. Robinhood launched on top of Kalshi, then added Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed joint venture with Susquehanna. This month it took minority stakes in Crypto.com and its prediction-market spinoff OG.com, adding a third partner to clear and settle trades.
Sports contracts are the legally contested category. The Ninth Circuit ruled last month that Nevada can regulate Kalshi’s sports contracts, splitting with the Third Circuit, and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to settle it. States argue sports contracts are gambling by another name. Crypto contracts don’t carry that fight. Shifting the mix toward crypto moves Robinhood’s fastest-growing business onto firmer legal ground.
Tenev also picked a revealing example of the pitch. He said users with a view on the Clarity Act could trade it, because Robinhood has a market on that. The bill failed cloture last week, and the prediction markets called it before the Senate did, with Polymarket odds falling from 35% to 11% ahead of the vote.
The other factor not being talked about here—crypto is exciting again. The bear market was just a grind down and then this summer had no volatility. No volatility means nothing interesting to bet on. That changes in an early bull market. Users can make predictions on BTC price targets by end of year. They can predict how quickly alt coins will hit ATH. They can even hedge the election by making a directional bet on price action. Overall, excitement is back in crypto. And that means more market action, of multiple varieties.
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
- Crypto majors are very green up 1-2%; BTC +2% at $86k; ETH +1% at $2,740; SOL +1% at $117; HYPE even at $95; ZEC -1% at $1,530
- Top alt movers include PEPE (+18%), TAO (+12%), NEAR (+11%) and PUMP (+4%)
- Oil -3% at $93; Gold -1% at $4,350
- Stock futures are mostly flat after a green Monday; DOW +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.03%
- Bitcoin hit an eight-month high near $86,000 as roughly $750 million in shorts were liquidated above $82,000, with about $2 billion in new leverage added since the breakout and analysts eyeing $90,000
- The first tokenized stock venues could file their notices next quarter, SEC Crypto Task Force chief counsel Taylor Lindman told Crypto In America, with several firms already asking about the new exemption
- X shared a promo video for its new cashtag program which will allow X users to trade crypto tokens and stocks directly from the home page via CEX connection
- X also sued two UK men in London’s High Court alleging a six-account Bitcoin bot network pulled at least £207,384, about $278,000, from its now-closed creator payout program
- Fairshake will spend $30 million against Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s Senate race, days after the Clarity Act failed, having spent roughly $40 million to help unseat him in 2024
- Attackers are actively exploiting the DarkSword iOS chain to steal seed phrases and private keys through malicious Safari pages, with SlowMist and Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet urging users to update to iOS 26.3 or later immediately
- Coinbase opened IPO allocations to US retail customers starting with Oura’s Nasdaq debut this week, 50 million shares at $40 to $44, with anyone who sells within 30 days barred from the next 60 days of offerings
- Apple and Google posted roles seeking stablecoin and tokenized-deposit expertise, an Apple Pay strategy lead in the US and a Google Cloud Web3 architect in Hong Kong, though neither listing confirms a product
Corporate Treasuries & ETFs
- The Bitcoin ETFs saw $433M in net inflows on Friday; the ETH ETFs saw $143M in inflows; and the SOL ETFs saw $48M
- Strategy bought 950 BTC for $75.7 million at an average of $79,670, lifting holdings to 846,000 BTC, while spending another $174 million repurchasing STRC
- Bitmine added 27,562 ETH, bringing holdings to 5.98 million, more than 4.9% of supply, with Tom Lee saying a crypto bull market is underway
Meme Coin Tracker
- Meme leaders were very green up 5-18%; DOGE +5%, SHIB +4%, PEPE +18%, PENGU +9%, TRUMP -1%, SPX +2%
- Robinhood chain leaders were mostly red; Pons +2% to $434M; AI -14% at $240M; Cashcat -8% at $167M; Age +420x, Delta +95%, Musebook +200% and Index +25% led top movers
- Solana top movers were led by Antfun +43%, SI +22x and x7 +20x; Ansem +2% to $173M
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
- Circle minted $1.5B in USDC on Solana on Monday
- Hyperliquid led onchain protocols with $3.66M in revenue on Monday followed by Pump at $1.96M, Stonk at $1.37M, Collector Crypt at $829k and Pons at $540k
- Trueo is moving its prediction market from Base to Ethereum mainnet, with Vitalik Buterin calling it a strong new entrant focused on decentralization and ethical design leading to the TRUE token jumping 10x
🚚 What is happening in NFTs?
- NFT leaders were green led by Punks; Punks +8% at 32 ETH, BAYC +3% at 6.66 ETH, Pudgy +4% at 3.4 ETH
- Stonk Cats (+94%) MAYC(+15%) led top movers
- CryptoPunks saw 28 sales in the past day as the floor moved up to 32 ETH