Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks

Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed the S&P 500 in half of US trading sessions over Glassnode’s latest measurement period, ending a prolonged stretch of losing more sessions than it won.

Key points:

• Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 by returns in 50% of US trading sessions over the past 90 sessions, per Glassnode data.
• Bitcoin’s session win rate has not exceeded 50% since March 2025.
• The S&P 500 gained an average of 10.7% in the three months after the seven midterm elections since 1922 in which Democrats won both chambers under a Republican president.

Bitcoin ends stretch of weakness against S&P 500

Data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode shows that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of Wall Street trading sessions over a rolling 90-session period.

The reading, covering the 90 sessions through Wednesday, marks an improvement after an extended period in which Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won.

“The win rate has not been above 50% since March 2025; for most of the past year, Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won,” Glassnode wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain. 

“A return to an even split ends a long stretch of underperformance. Should the win rate climb above 50% and hold there, it would show Bitcoin regaining strength against equities.”

BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 per-session returns. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode added that Bitcoin’s average per-session gains were also “slightly higher” than those of the S&P 500. 

Historical data favors stocks after Democratic midterm sweeps

Democrats’ wins in the US midterm elections have also drawn attention to historical stock market gains following similar results.

Data from crypto asset manager Capriole Investments shows that Democratic sweeps of Congress under Republican presidents have historically been followed by strong S&P 500 returns.

Related: Bitcoin hits $80.5K as US stocks rally on midterm election results

Of the 26 midterm elections since 1922 (excluding this year’s vote), Democrats won both the House and Senate under a Republican president seven times. The S&P 500 gained an average of 10.7% over the following three months.

Average gains were 17.5% after six months and 15.5% after a year.

“There is simply no better election result for markets than we just had,” Capriole founder Charles Edwards commented on the data in a post on X.

S&P 500 performance based on Midterm Election outcome. Source: Charles Edwards on X.com

Data from TradingView puts Bitcoin’s rolling 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.63. The measure has become markedly positive since August, when both crypto and stocks gained as the US Treasury expanded its debt buybacks.

BTC/USD one-day chart with S&P 500 correlation data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView