Bitcoin weathers September storm as rate hikes and Clarity act setback test bulls

The regulatory policy outlook continues to improve after the Senate rejected the Clarity Act. On Thursday, the crypto industry received a more encouraging policy development as the Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled its long-awaited innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues, allowing qualifying platforms to facilitate onchain trading of stocks under specified conditions.

“The failure to advance the legislation delays a statutory framework, but it does not prevent the SEC and CFTC from continuing to provide guidance under existing authority, leaving an important regulatory pathway open,” Kruger noted.

Some are concerned about the possibility of more rate hikes by the Fed and increases in Treasury yields. Markets are pricing in three further quarter-point increases by April 2027, which would take the federal funds rate to 4.50%–4.75%.

But as Dori said, this doesn’t necessarily pose a risk.

“I do not fully agree that rates need to fall in order for digital assets to outperform,” he stressed.

The only concerning factor for bulls is that seasonality offers little comfort heading into next week.

Bitcoin has historically fallen an average of 2.5% in the year’s 38th week, recording gains on just four occasions, according to Coinglass.

But past performance is no guarantee of future results. Besides, the same seasonality turns positive as we enter the final quarter of the year. Bitcoin on average goes up 77% in Q4, according to data source CoinDesk.