Bitcoin targets $90K as spot demand challenges shorts

Bitcoin has broken above $85,000 as renewed U.S. buying and forced short covering have put Nansen’s next targets at $87,000 and $90,000, even as large crypto traders remain net short.

Nansen Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard told crypto.news that Bitcoin’s price has turned bullish faster than positioning among crypto-native traders, creating room for underexposed market participants to chase the rally.

The move above $84,000 appears to have drawn support from renewed exchange-traded fund demand and a large short squeeze, according to Sondergaard. However, Hyperliquid’s largest Bitcoin traders were still net short, suggesting that some major market participants had not fully accepted the recovery.

Onchain exchange flows offered another sign of caution. Nansen recorded more Bitcoin moving onto exchanges than leaving them over the past two days, a pattern that can raise the amount of BTC available for sale.

“Bitcoin’s move above $84,000 looks less like a clean macro-driven accumulation event and more like a combination of renewed ETF demand and a large short squeeze,” Sondergaard said. “The important distinction is that price has turned bullish faster than positioning has.”

Under-positioned traders may have to buy Bitcoin if the advance continues, adding fuel to the rally. Sondergaard warned, however, that the move would remain exposed to a reversal if ETF inflows weaken or U.S. Treasury yields climb again.

Bitcoin spot demand must confirm the $85K breakout

Spot-market signals have strengthened alongside Bitcoin’s advance, giving the latest rally more support than a move driven mainly by perpetual futures.

ViaBTC Chief Analyst Jeff Ko said the Coinbase premium returned to positive territory on Friday, indicating that Bitcoin traded at a higher price on the U.S. exchange than on offshore platforms. Analysts often use the premium to assess buying interest from American investors and institutions.

At the same time, USDT/USD rose from 0.9991 to 0.9998 over the weekend. Ko viewed the move toward the stablecoin’s dollar peg as another sign of genuine demand rather than a rally sustained only by borrowed money.

Friday’s rebound followed two major setbacks earlier in the week. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, while the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act. Bitcoin initially fell into the mid-$75,000 range before recovering.

As previously covered by crypto.news, all 12 voting Federal Open Market Committee members supported the rate increase, while 16 of 18 officials projected at least one more hike during 2026. Bitcoin briefly approached $76,000 after the decision as Treasury yields and the dollar remained firm.

The market had also faced heavy ETF withdrawals. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds lost about $746.3 million across Sep. 15 and Sep. 16 before attracting $159.5 million on Sep. 17 and roughly $433 million on Sep. 18. Friday’s inflows included $310.7 million for Fidelity’s FBTC and $108.4 million for BlackRock’s IBIT.

Across the full five-session period, the funds recorded about $6.2 million in net inflows, showing that late-week demand nearly erased the earlier withdrawals. Ko said sustained ETF demand now matters more than the excitement created by the initial breakout.

Bitcoin faces its next test at $87K

After Bitcoin cleared and held $85,000, Sondergaard identified $87,000 as the next level to monitor. A break above that area would bring the psychological $90,000 level into view, followed by possible resistance around $92,000.

“The next level to look for would be $87k, given $85k is broken and held, then $90k would be psychological and again some levels to look for around $92k,” Sondergaard said.

Any move through the three levels will depend on continued spot buying and the absence of another sharp macro shock, according to the analyst. Without spot and ETF follow-through, Sondergaard said the advance could become another move led mainly by perpetual futures, leaving Bitcoin more exposed to sell-offs and geopolitical events.

Earlier technical conditions had already started turning in favor of buyers. During Friday’s rally, Bitcoin rebounded toward $81,300 after reclaiming its True Market Mean near $76,660. More than $250 million in short positions were liquidated over 24 hours as BTC crossed $78,000 and $80,000.

The 4-hour Supertrend flipped bullish near $78,677, while the daily Relative Strength Index rose to 64.48. Bitcoin also moved above the middle line of its daily Bollinger Bands before testing the upper band, according to the Sep. 19 technical report.

Ko had identified $80,000 as the main pivot before Bitcoin’s latest leg higher, with $82,000 acting as the resistance level that buyers needed to clear. Price has since moved beyond both zones, turning them into areas traders may watch during a pullback.

Holding above the former resistance areas without a steep rise in leverage would offer a stronger structure than a fast move powered by futures positions, according to Ko. Sondergaard’s exchange-flow data still leaves a risk that BTC deposited on trading platforms could return to the market if momentum weakens.

Treasury yields and oil remain risks for Bitcoin

The macro setting remains difficult despite Bitcoin’s recovery. Ko pointed to a U.S. 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, a firm dollar and oil prices above $100, although crude had eased from the previous week’s spike.

Higher bond yields can raise the return available from traditional fixed-income assets, while a stronger dollar can place pressure on assets priced in the U.S. currency. Expensive oil may also keep inflation concerns active as Federal Reserve officials consider whether another rate increase is needed.

The Fed’s September hike followed a sharp rise in market expectations after attacks on Saudi infrastructure pushed oil about 11% higher over five days. A preview of the Fed decision noted that the institutional structure of the crypto market now differs from earlier tightening cycles because U.S. spot ETFs and corporate Bitcoin holdings have increased conventional market exposure.

Bitcoin absorbed the rate increase and the failed CLARITY vote before rallying on Friday, which Ko cited as evidence of resilience. Still, he expects rates, oil and Fed communication to drive trading during a relatively light week for major U.S. economic releases.

Flash U.S. purchasing managers’ indexes are scheduled for Wednesday, followed by jobless claims and new-home sales on Thursday. Several Fed officials are also due to speak, giving investors further clues about whether policymakers support a second increase during 2026.

Friday’s quarter-end options expiry could add short-term volatility as traders settle contracts or adjust hedges. Ko said ETF flows remain the more important signal because persistent fund demand would show that U.S. investors are supporting the rally beyond the derivatives market.

ETH/BTC must rise before altcoin demand improves

Outside Bitcoin, Nansen has detected selective demand for higher-risk areas such as lending, yield and real-world asset tokens. Sondergaard described the activity as a tactical risk-on rebound rather than the start of a confirmed accumulation cycle across altcoins.

Ko said Ether’s performance against Bitcoin carries more value than its dollar price when judging whether demand is spreading through the market. The ETH/BTC ratio has remained in the low 0.03 range, limiting Ether’s relative appeal while Bitcoin continues to lead.

A convincing rise in ETH/BTC, combined with sustained positive Ether ETF flows, would indicate that investors are becoming more willing to take risk beyond Bitcoin, according to Ko. Until both signals appear, Ether’s dollar gains may largely follow Bitcoin rather than show independent strength.