Bitcoin Shakes Off Spooky Season Jitters: Can Bulls Keep It Going?
In brief
- Bitcoin is up 2.24% at $83,591.79 after dipping to $80,953.41, a higher low than the $80,365.12 swing that started its latest bounce.
- The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at a neutral 55, down from an "extreme greed" peak of 82 in August.
- Myriad traders give 54% odds that Bitcoin touches $80,000 in October and 45% odds it reaches $87,500.
Bitcoin is bouncing today following a week that had traders swapping "Uptober" memes for "spooky szn" ones after BTC cut its September gains in half.
The price of Bitcoin today slid to $80,953.41 early Tuesday, extending a Monday sell-off, then reversed to $83,591.79, up 2.24% on the day.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a 0-to-100 sentiment gauge built from momentum, volatility, options positioning and social data, fell to 53 from an "extreme greed" reading of 82 on Aug. 26. It reads 56 today, a neutral score. What it boils down to is this: The August euphoria is gone, but traders aren’t panicking either.
Bitcoin ETFs are down a net $386.3 million in October, and outflows force funds to sell actual Bitcoin. Wednesday's Consumer Price Index report, expected to show annual inflation rising to 3.6% from 3.4%, is the next test: a hotter print would boost rate-hike bets and likely pressure Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27-28.
Traders on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, give 54% odds that Bitcoin falls to $80,000 this month, down from 56% on Monday. The BTC highs in October market holds at 45% for $87,500. So, overall, sentiment has improved today, even if slightly.
Bitcoin price: Bulls defend the golden zone
Today's low stopped about $588 above $80,365.12, the swing low where the bounce began. That higher low is what traders want in an uptrend. Bitcoin also reclaimed the Fibonacci "golden zone" between $81,847.57 and $82,305.50, an area where pullbacks within uptrends often draw buyers.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, measures trend strength, and readings above 25 confirm a trend. It reads 29.9 with buyers in control, but it was 42.8 on Oct. 7, so the uptrend is coasting rather than accelerating. The 50-day exponential moving average stayed above the 200-day, a golden cross traders read as an intact long-term uptrend.
The Relative Strength Index, a 0-to-100 momentum gauge, sits at 53.4, just above the 50 line that separates bullish from bearish momentum. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator has been on for seven sessions, meaning volatility is compressed like a coiled spring, and its -0.52 reading leans slightly bearish.
→A daily close above $84,245.88 would open $86,644.19, then the $87,422.70 high, about $77 shy of Myriad's $87,500 line. Losing $81,603.02 would bring the daily trend band's upper edge into play just above $80,000. A close below it would expose $77,500.
Until Wednesday's CPI print, the active squeeze points to a market that is winding up rather than picking a direction. Oil and Iran headlines, Treasury yields, and daily ETF flows remain the short-term catalysts to track.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.