Bitcoin’s spot-demand signal is improving. A bigger futures slump is drowning it out

Bitcoin’s improving spot-demand signal is losing ground to a sharper deterioration in perpetual futures. With the price near $73,000, that split leaves its attempted recovery vulnerable ahead of Friday’s US producer-inflation release.

Bitcoin traded around $73,478 at about 10:40 UTC on November 12. A Coinbase quote one minute earlier was about $73,469.

In a November 11 CryptoQuant note, analyst RugaResearch put the combined 30-day spot-and-perpetual demand estimate at negative 348,000 BTC on November 10, its weakest reading that month.

From November 7 to November 10, the spot proxy improved by approximately 29,500 BTC. The perpetual-futures estimate deteriorated by about 63,500 BTC over the same period. Both components remained below zero, leaving the improvement short of positive readings.

Perpetual deterioration was more than twice the spot improvement; both component levels remained negative.

Analyst proxy, not executed purchases or capital flows. Both component levels remained negative. Exact formula, venue coverage and absolute component levels are not disclosed. Each rolling reading adds a day and drops the oldest.

Sources and evidence

Sources

1. RugaResearch: 30-day demand estimate, November 11

Supporting facts

• In a November 11 CryptoQuant note, RugaResearch put Bitcoin’s combined 30-day spot-and-perpetual demand estimate at negative 348,000 BTC on November 10, the weakest reading disclosed for the month. [1]
• RugaResearch said the spot proxy improved about 29,500 BTC from November 7 to November 10 while the perpetual-futures estimate deteriorated about 63,500 BTC over the same three days; both components remained below zero. [1]
• RugaResearch said each reading of the 30-day demand window adds a new day and removes the oldest, and is watching its movement across several closes before judging whether improvement persists. [1]

Method

Reported approximate changes from November 7 to 10. Desktop arrow lengths use 1 pixel per 200 BTC; mobile uses 1 pixel per 500 BTC. Signed changes share a zero-change reference within each view. The combined level is a separate reported figure; no net-change calculation or component baseline is inferred.

Scope

Analyst proxy, not executed purchases or capital flows. Both component levels remained negative. Exact formula, venue coverage and absolute component levels are not disclosed. Each rolling reading adds a day and drops the oldest.

Infographic by CryptoSlate

Demand signals still need confirmation

This is an analyst’s proxy, not a purchase count. Its public description omits the formula, exchange coverage and absolute component levels.

Each reading adds a day and drops the oldest. That rolling window makes persistence across several closes more informative than one improvement.

This breakdown also differs from the apparent-demand measure discussed in CryptoSlate’s November 11 coverage. That article’s negative 284,000-BTC reading cannot be compared with negative 348,000 BTC as though one followed the other in a single series.

RugaResearch said spot moving toward zero, easing futures weakness and a flattening total while price holds its lows would strengthen the range case.

A separate CryptoQuant note by CoinNiel reported approximately 9,956 BTC in net exchange inflows on November 10, followed by about 981 BTC in preliminary net outflows on November 11.

CoinNiel labeled the November 11 data preliminary. Exchange withdrawals do not necessarily represent purchases, nor deposits sales, so several days of consistent flows would offer a stronger signal than one reversal.

The same note reported an all-exchange funding rate of 0.0051% in preliminary November 11 data, down from 0.0113%. Longs were still paying shorts, but at a lower reported rate.

In CoinNiel’s November 11 snapshot, open interest rose 1.2% from the previous day to about $26 billion, close to its seven-day average through November 10. That combination indicates lower long funding costs alongside slightly higher outstanding exposure. Open interest includes long and short positions, so its increase does not identify which side is driving the demand split.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs supplied a separate caution. Farside’s latest completed row showed net outflows of $300 million on November 11. Smaller withdrawals or sustained inflows would strengthen the stabilization case, but the latest reading still points to withdrawals.

Friday tests the macro backdrop

The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules October’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, or 13:30 UTC.

Inflation matters because it can change expectations for financing conditions. In his November 10 speech, delivered before that day’s consumer-inflation release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation remained too high and leaned toward a quarter-point December rate increase under his expected inflation path. That was his conditional view, rather than a commitment by the Federal Open Market Committee.

A PPI report that reinforces expectations of tighter policy could keep financing conditions restrictive and weigh on risk appetite. A softer report could ease that pressure.

Friday’s initial price reaction will leave the persistence test open. Renewed spot weakness or an accelerating futures drag would undermine stabilization, even if Bitcoin briefly rebounds after the release. Smaller ETF outflows and sustained exchange withdrawals would add context without replacing the component readings.