Bitcoin’s recovery stalls just short of rescuing its last underwater cohort
- The 2025 cohort is the only yearly buyer group still underwater, with an average purchase price of approximately $88,000.
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have an average cost basis of $82,300, a potential support level if the pullback continues.
Only one yearly bitcoin BTC$83.785,52 buyer cohort remains underwater, according to checkonchain data: investors who bought in 2025, with an average cost basis of approximately $88,000, which may now be forming a key resistance level due to sell pressure from relatively recent buyers.
Bitcoin reached a monthly high of $87,500 in September before trading sideways and subsequently retreating below $84,000 as of Wednesday.
These yearly volume-weighted cost bases have acted as support and resistance throughout the cycle. As bitcoin approaches a cohort’s average purchase price, some investors may look to exit at breakeven, while others may add to their positions.
Bitcoin climbed to approximately $82,100 in May, matching the 2024 cohort’s average cost basis, before encountering resistance and falling back to $60,000. It eventually broke above that level in August.
The 2023 cohort’s cost basis, currently around $65,000, has provided a recurring support level. When bitcoin fell towards $60,000 in February, that cohort’s cost basis was also near that level. It broadly held as support throughout the 2026 bear market, although bitcoin briefly traded below it.