Bitcoin holds below $70K as stocks slip despite a cooler US PPI print

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $68,700 following Friday’s Wall Street open, rebounding from an earlier dip to roughly $67,500.

Key points:

• Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $70,000 mark after hitting about $67,500 on Friday, its lowest level since mid-August.
• The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 6.5% year over year in October, 0.1 percentage points below expectations but still the largest increase since November 2022.
• Rekt Capital warned that a weekly close below $73,000 could mark Bitcoin’s third break of that support level in 2026.

US PPI sees largest yearly gain since Q4 2022

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD down 4% on the day after bouncing from a roughly 12-week low near $67,500.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The US Producer Price Index, which tracks changes in the prices domestic producers receive for their goods and services, rose 0.3% month over month and 6.5% year over year in October. Both readings were 0.1 percentage points below market expectations but the annual increase was the largest since November 2022.

“Leading the October advance in final demand prices, the index for final demand goods increased 0.5 percent. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent,” the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday.

US PPI one-month percentage change. Source: BLS

Stocks showed little sign of relief at the start of the US trading session, with traders still parsing developments around Nvidia after its co-founder and CEO, Jensen Huang, resigned on Thursday.

The S&P 500 was down 1.2% at the time of writing, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was 1.5% lower.

Nasdaq Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The PPI release led markets to slightly adjust expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Odds of a minimal 25-basis-point hike at the Fed’s December meeting rose from 85.4% on Thursday to 89.7%, while odds of a larger 50-basis-point move decreased from 14.5% to 10.3%, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target-rate probability comparison for the December FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Economist Robin Brooks described a 25-basis-point hike in December as “all but inevitable.” He argued, however, against a steeper increase, seeing it as ineffective in the face of current inflation drivers: the oil-price spike from the US-Iran war and potential long-term acceleration in underlying inflation. 

“If high inflation is about the Strait of Hormuz and oil, 75 basis points won’t do anything about that. If the issue is that the pace of underlying inflation has risen, then 75 basis points is much too timid to get this under control,” he wrote.

Related: Stablecoin supply falls $14.2B in biggest 30-day drop since June 2022

Bitcoin eyes repeat of breakdown that preceded $60,000 drop

Crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that a BTC close below $73,000 on Sunday would mark a support breakdown already seen in 2026.

“Last week’s Weekly Candle Closed below 3 Weekly levels,” he wrote on X, referring to $75,000, $76,800 and $78,300. “This Weekly Candle looks set to do something similar. Which is testament to sell-side momentum still gaining and the bears being in control.”

After each of the two previous breakdowns, Bitcoin fell to around $60,000.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

At $68,700, BTC/USD is down 17.7% in the fourth quarter and 11.2% month to date. The quarterly performance is currently Bitcoin’s second worst on record, data from CoinGlass confirms.

BTC/USD quarterly returns. Source: CoinGlass