Bitcoin Bounces as Markets Brace for the Fed’s Next Move
In brief
- The Fed raised its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% on a unanimous 12-0 vote Wednesday, its first hike since July 2023, after traders priced in a 93% chance of the move.
- Bitcoin briefly touched $76,499 after the announcement before settling near $76,300, roughly flat on the day as the broader crypto market held above $2.6 trillion.
- Zcash surged as much as 23% toward $1,425 after Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang disclosed his firm's ZEC stake, calling the token "a private complement to Bitcoin."
Bitcoin traded near $76,300 on Thursday, largely unmoved a day after the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest rate hike since July 2023.
The Fed lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, a move all 12 Federal Open Market Committee members backed. Traders had priced in a 93% probability of the hike heading into the decision, per CME's FedWatch tool.
Wall Street's reaction ran hotter than crypto's. The Dow sank about 1.2% and the S&P 500 slid 0.4% to 0.5% on Wednesday, while the 10-year Treasury yield had topped 5% earlier in the week, its highest since 2007, as oil pushed above $100 a barrel amid the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Higher rates make Treasurys and cash more attractive relative to assets like Bitcoin and gold that pay no yield, and a hawkish hike tends to strengthen the dollar, a double headwind for risk assets broadly.
Those moves eased by Thursday morning, which helps explain crypto's calm. Long-end Treasury yields dropped roughly two basis points and equity futures turned higher after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting message reassured bond markets that no disorderly yield spike was coming, while oil retreated slightly from its highs.
The broader crypto market capitalization sat at $2.63 trillion at last check, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reading 50, exactly in “neutral” territory, which marks a significant drop from the “extreme greed” readings the index marked just three weeks ago.
Zcash breaks from the pack
One crypto asset moved far more than the rest. Zcash jumped as much as 23% to trade near $1,425, a multi-year high, after Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang disclosed on X that his venture firm holds ZEC and has invested in the Zcash Open Development Lab.
Huang called Zcash "a private complement to Bitcoin" and argued its inflation-funded developer fund deserves continued backing as AI-driven cyber threats and quantum computing advance.
Zcash jumped 37% in May after Multicoin Capital's Tushar Jain revealed a position built since February, calling the token "the cleanest way" to express a privacy thesis rooted in wealth-seizure fears.
ZEC has gained roughly 160% over the past month, compared with Bitcoin's 18.2% climb in the same stretch, and is up nearly 3000% in the last 365 days. That makes it the standout performer among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap this week.
The rest of the majors
Gains were more modest elsewhere among the top 50. BNB traded near $724 (up 2%), Solana held just above $100 for a 3.3% spike, and XRP lagged at $1.29, up 2% today but still down more than 6% for the week after crypto's Clarity Act failed its Senate cloture vote days earlier.
The crypto bill would have legalized most crypto activity in the United States and would have meant more meaningful clarity for altcoins such as Solana and XRP than for Bitcoin, which is widely recognized to stand apart from a regulatory perspective.
Roughly $373 million in crypto liquidations hit the market over 24 hours, with short positions accounting for the larger share as prices ground higher into the rate decision.
The Fed's median projection puts the federal funds rate at 4.1% by the end of 2026, leaving room for one more quarter-point move. Its next meeting is scheduled for October 27-28.