$125 Billion US Treasury Sale Starts Soft: Why Bitcoin May Feel Tuesday's Test

Wall Street got its first look at demand for America’s debt on Monday, and buyers held back. Tuesday brings a bigger test, a $42 billion sale of 10-year notes, hours after fresh inflation data.

The 10-year rate shapes what Americans pay on mortgages and what investors pay for stocks. Bitcoin (BTC) pays no interest at all. So when government debt pays more, holding Bitcoin means giving up more income.

How Did Monday’s Sale Go?

Washington is borrowing $125 billion this week across three sales. Monday’s $58 billion of 3-year notes sold at 4.627%.

Bids covered the offer 2.53 times, below the usual 2.64, investingLive reported. Foreign and other outside buyers took 55.5%, short of their 62.7% average.

The rule is simple. The less eager the buyers, the more interest the US must offer.

Why Does Tuesday’s Timing Matter?

At 8:30 a.m. ET, the government releases October’s inflation report. At 1 p.m., the 10-year auction closes.

Forecasters expect prices rose about 0.3% in a single month, Kiplinger reported. Some economists already expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates again on Dec. 9.

“Our baseline call remains a 25-basis-point hike in December,” said Pooja Sriram, senior US economist at Barclays.

Does Bitcoin Always Fall When Rates Rise?

No. In early October, the 10-year rate passed 5.35%, its highest since 2002. Bitcoin ended the month down about 7%.

Yet in May 2025, a weak 20-year sale knocked the S&P 500 down 1.6%. Bitcoin hit a record high that same day.

Who Pays for America’s Debt?

America now spends more on interest than on defense. Net interest hit $1.1 trillion last fiscal year, against $965 billion for defense, the American Action Forum found.

Total debt stands at $40.56 trillion. This week’s sales raise $28 billion in new cash, the Treasury said.

A $25 billion 30-year sale follows on Thursday. By then, anyone watching the live Bitcoin price will know what lenders charged America this week.